Monday, November 9, 2009

Blueprint for a sad season

There are still eight games to play ... The way it looks right now, here's my predictions:

@ 49ers W
Eagles L
@ Vikings L
Rams W
Packers W
@ Ravens L
Vikings L
@ Lions W

I think the game against the 49ers this Thursday and the game against the Pack December 13th could easily go the other way. But if we're able to sweep the Lions, beat the lowly Rams, beat the Packers at home, and find a way to rebound and beat Mike Singletary's 49ers this week, we could finish .500 this season. I don't see it getting any better than that under any circumstances. And I think 6-10 or worse is a real possibility.

So what's gone wrong this season?

1. Offensive Line. In 2002 we drafted Marc Columbo and Terrence Metcalf on the first day of the draft (rounds 1 and 3, respectively). Since then the only other offensive lineman we've drafted on day one has been Chris Williams in '08, in the first round, though he has not played like a first round pick up to this point. They were surprised by the retirement of John Tait and had to scramble. They came up with Orlando Pace, which seemed like a good idea at the time, but at the midway point of this season it's clear that he's no longer a good option as a starter in this league. It wouldn't surprise me if he retires following this season. How much does Garza have left in the tank? Or Kreutz for that matter? You've got a real problem on the o-line and Frank Omiygale isn't the answer. Football is won and lost in the trenches. We've taken lots of shots at the defensive line. Not so much on the offensive line.

2. Wasted draft picks. Michael Haynes. Cedric Benson. Rex Grossman. Dan Bauzin. Mark Bradley. Tank Johnson. Those players were chosen in first or second round of the draft between 2003-2005 and Bauzin in 2007. None of those players are currently with the organization. That ain't good. That is not a recipe for building a winner. And we have only one pick on the first day this year. Given the way we draft on day one maybe that's not such a bad thing...

3. Coaching. Since Ron Rivera was unceremoniously forced out of Chicago following the Super Bowl loss to the Colts, the defense has taken a nosedive. Period. So Lovie takes over the defense this season. And we hire Rod Marenelli to coach the defensive linemen and John Hoke to coach defensive backs (moves which, admittedly, I applauded at the time), and we thought that was going to make up for our defects from a year ago. Not even close. Coaches can't make plays. It's up to players. They haven't. Or maybe they haven't been put in a position to make plays? And, no matter what happens with the rest of the staff, I sincerely hope Ron Turner is looking for employment after the season is over.

If we go 8-8 this year, I think they'll probably retain Lovie et al. If it falls of the tracks and ends up 6-10 ... I think there are going to be some lovely homes up for sale in the Lake Forest area. And maybe that would be for the best.

You can already hear the Mike Shanahan, Bill Cowher mumbles starting.

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